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976 will be published late-October 29th or overnight, no later than October 30th, covering Third-Quarter GDP, September New Orders for Durable Goods and New Home Sales, with significant new material. Postings of Commentaries and Watches are advised to subscribers by e-mail. Best wishes, John Williams Public Comment on Inflation Measurement & the Chained CPI-U Public Commentary on Unemployment Update 2016 • Update 2015 • Hyperinflation 2014 • 2014 Second Installment • Deficit Reality Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it.
I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.
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On Top of U.6, Shadow Stats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.3% from 21.2% • Intense Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not at a Record Low • Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for the Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up More ...• Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Are on the Wane, With Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Headed for a Record Shortfall • August Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Some Pickup • Federal Reserve Tightening Hits the Consumer Hard, Threatening Any Nascent, Broad Economic Upturn • Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up • Clobbered by Intensifying Consumer Liquidity Troubles, All Major Residential-Construction and Home-Sales Indicators in August Held in Deepening, Six-Month Moving-Average Downtrends • Residential Sales and Construction Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks: Existing-Home Sales by 26.5% (-26.5%), New-Home Sales by 54.7% (-54.7%), Building Permits by 45.7% (-45.7%) and Housing Starts by 43.6% (-43.6%) • Ex-Defense and Commercial Aircraft, August Real Durable Goods Orders Fell by 0.5% (-0.5%); Automobile Orders and Shipments Declined; Growth Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer • Second-Quarter Real Gross Domestic (GDP) Revised to 4.16% from 4.23%; Purported Equivalent Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 1.62% from 1.81% • Real GDP Stood 17.4% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation More ...• Tipping Point for the Markets Likely Is at Hand • Booming Consumer Outlook in September 2018 Has Parallels to 1987 • The FOMC Hiked Rates as Expected, Although Core Inflation Had Slowed Back to Below Overheated Conditions • The Fed Has Dimmed Near-Term Economic Prospects by Continuing to Tighten the Screws on Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Likely Thwarting Any Nascent Economic Recovery • August Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired • Monthly Growth in Real Retail Sales and Production Ground to a Halt in August, Net of Revisions, While Annual Growth in Freight Activity Softened • Hurricane Florence Likely Disrupted Pending September Employment and Unemployment Numbers, on Top of Year-Ago Distortions • Hurricane-Spiked Gasoline Prices in 2017 Will Have a Minimal Dampening Effect on the Pending Social Security COLA Determination • Hurricane-Driven 2017 Data Turmoil Resurfaced with August 2018 Inflation, Slowing Annual Inflation, with Headline Growth Distortions Likely in Pending Economic Releases for September 2018 and Beyond More ...• Extreme Income Variance Signaled Record Levels of Financial Stress in 2017, Ultimately Foreshadowing Severe Economic and Stock-Market Turmoil • Headline All-Time High in Real 2017 Household Income Was Nonsense • Consistently Surveyed and Reported, Real Annual Median Household Income Has Yet to Recover Its High Levels of 19 • Still, July 2018 Monthly Real Median Household Income Showed Its Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain • August Household-Survey Employed Dropped by 423,000 (-423,000), while the Headline August Payroll Gain of 201,000 Was 151,000, Net of Revisions • August U.3 Unemployment Edged Lower to 3.85%, from 3.87% in July; Broader U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.39% from 7.54%.
• RECENT/EARLIER ECONOMIC RELEASES are reviewed in posted Commentaries, with summary headlines shown in the left-hand column below. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Williams, my friends call me “John.” For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.Headline GDP growth also was constrained by a sharp deterioration in Net Exports (Trade Deficit).• (Oct 25, 26) The Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit (Census) likely was the worst in U. history, based on the widening of the advance estimate of the September Trade Deficit in Goods (Oct 25), and the preliminary sharp deterioration in the Net Export detail of the GDP (Oct 26).• (Oct 25) September New Orders for Durable Goods (Census) were reasonably positive, propped by irregular defense orders.There also may have been some boost from hurricane-replacement orders for automobiles.
Real (inflation-adjusted) total Durable Goods Orders rose month-to-month in September by 0.6%, versus 4.5% in August.